Analysis of the Rios Move

As most Toronto Blue Jays fans and baseball fans in general have come to find out, Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Alex Rios was claimed on waivers by the Chicago White Sox yesterday afternoon, in what most Toronto baseball fans consider a shocking move.

The Toronto Blue Jays parted with Rios and received zero compensation, but shed more than $60 million dollars left on Rios’ contract through 2015, with a $13.5 million option for the 2015 season.

Blue Jays General Manager J.P Ricciardi let the media know that the move was made to create more financial flexibility to better the team in the future.

Rios, a two time All-Star selection, was Toronto’s 19th overall selection in the 1999 Major League Draft and was touted along with Aaron Hill and Adam Lind as a future superstar of the Blue Jays organization.

Rios, tabbed as a possible 30-30 player with all the tools necessary to garner the title of “five tool player” had not lived up to the offensive power numbers expected of him by the franchise.

Rios has had very good career numbers, but when the Jays signed Rios to a $69,835,000 contract in April of 2008 the expectations for him to develop more power was high.

Here are Rios’ career offensive statistics:

2004 - .286AVG, 1HR, 28RBI, 15SB in 426AB
2005 - .262AVG, 10HR, 59RBI, 14SB in 481AB
2006 - .302AVG, 17HR, 82RBI, 15SB in 450 AB – All Star Selection
2007 - .297AVG, 24HR, 85RBI, 17SB in 643AB – All Star Selection
2008 - .291AVG, 15HR, 79RBI, 32SB in 635AB
2009 - .264AVG, 14HR, 62RBI, 19SB in 436AB

Rios’ power numbers and average have been dropping over the last two seasons, and his effectiveness playing right field had done the same.

Here are Rio’s career fielding statistics:

2004 – 111G, 964.2INN, 11A, 2E, .991FPCT
2005 – 142G, 1092.2INN, 7A, 2E, .992FPCT
2006 - 125G, 985INN, 8A, 1E, .996FPCT
2007 – 161G, 1411.2INN, 11A, 7E, .977FPCT
2008 – 151G, 1342.2INN, 14A, 4E, .988FPCT
2009 – 108G, 975.2INN, 4A, 3E, .988FPCT

As you can see from above, Rios’ fielding percentage dropped from 2006 – 2009, but that could be attributed to fielding more innings while playing more games, even so, it is still a concern.

Rios is still only 28 years old and is going into the stage in his career where most ball players reach their prime.

With the money saved on Rios’ and Scott Rolen’s contract the Jays have close to $70 million dollars to invest in helping out a squad that desperately needs to contend next year, before a large majority of their players contracts expire at the end of the 2010 season.

A small, but important chunk of that 70 million will most likely be used to re-sign shortstop Marco Scutaro, as it is guaranteed that his asking price to return to Toronto will be higher than the $1.1 million dollar contract he currently has, especially considering his performance both offensively and defensively this season.

With the hope of Travis Snider making a productive return to the Blue Jays next season, the Jays have a player who can man either left field, right field or be the designated hitter.

The Jays also have productive left fielder/designated hitter Adam Lind.

Snider is a better defender than Lind, while Lind has become accustomed to the designated hitter role this year, so that leaves the Jays with a few different options.

1. Acquire a free agent right fielder with power, who can produce more offense than Rios, and will play everyday, or close to it and use Snider/Lind in left and have them alternate between the designated hitter role.

2. Use Snider in right, Lind in left and find a powerful designated hitter, preferably right handed to add that extra punch the Jays need from the right side.

Let’s take a look at some possible outfielders and "big bats" who will be available on the free agent market next season, as possible additions to the Blue Jays lineup.

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts the following outfielders are up for free agency at the end of the 2009 season.

Bobby Abreu
Garret Anderson
Rick Ankiel
Rocco Baldelli
Jason Bay
Marlon Byrd
Mike Cameron
Frank Catalanotto
Endy Chavez
Coco Crisp
Carl Crawford
Johnny Damon
David Dellucci
Jermaine Dye
Darin Erstad
Cliff Floyd
Ryan Freel
Brian Giles
Ken Griffey Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero
Matt Holliday
Geoff Jenkins
Reed Johnson
Andruw Jones
Austin Kearns
Hideki Matusi
Jason Michaels
Xavier Nady
Magglio Ordonez
Manny Ramirez
Dave Roberts
Gary Sheffield
Randy Winn

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts the following “big bats” or run producers are up for free agency at the end of the 2009 season.

Russell Branyan
Carlos Delgado
Aubrey Huff
Nick Johnson
Adam LaRoche
Jim Thome
Mark DeRosa
Freddy Sanchez
Adrian Beltre
Hank Blalock
Victor Martinez

With the Jays need for a big right handed bat, who can either play right field or who can DH and let the duo or Lind/Snider handle the outfield, this offseason would be a good time to go after a bat the likes of Victor Martinez, Bobby Abreu, Adrian Beltre, Xavier Nady, or Jason Bay.

The likelihood of Martinez and Bay resigning with Boston is pretty high and the Red Sox have the cash to accomplish this feat, so Beltre and Nady are great options.

Who knows if the Jays will want to pay for either, as both have had nagging injury problems this season.

Abreu was acquired on the free agent market by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim on the cheap, but with Abreu still playing productive baseball and fitting into the Mike Sciosia method of manufacturing runs in LA, Abreu's asking price might be out of the Blue Jays league.

But look at the other power potential and run production available next season.

Sure players such as Carlos Delgado, and Jim Thome are past their primes, but there are still a vast majority of proven run producers available for the Jays to choose from and I’m sure some will come at the cheap, as they did last season, due to the economic troubles of the world.

Only time will be able to tell what the Jays will do with the large sum of money the front office saved on giving away Alex Rios, and the decision most likely won’t be made until this offseason, if it happens at all.

The Jays front office promised we would contend next season and if it didn’t happen they would tear the house down.

Could it all be false hope? Is the Rios move just the beginning of things to come? Will the Jays contend or pretend next season?

Let’s wait and see if the run production is added or if the team is torn apart, causing the fans to leave more empty seats at the already bleak looking Rogers Centre.